There is another factor, important to me, which argues in your favor. In sports, there is the new wave of analytics people with their endless data who evaluate athletes only on that basis.. But there are also still many old schoolers who will not let go of the eyeball test, namely, does the athlete look and feel like a winner in light of past experience? I believe that distinction applies in other contexts as well. Re China, even though the analytics people see inevitable war for a million of data-based reasons, my eyeball test says they are wrong, or at least short-sighted. Why? Despite the recent instances in this country of hate crimes against Asians, the vast majority of Americans have no hostility toward China, except the easily brain-washed who watch Fox. Unlike the Japanese, the Chine se have not opposed us except in Korea where they had no choice. I suspect that, despite our historical transgressions against the Chinese, they are not hostile as a rule toward us. (They all still want to go to Disneyland and Hollywood.) Maybe the military-industrial complex is strong and effective enough to brainwash the whole country, but I doubt it. This country doesn't agree on anything. My fear . . they will trick us into conflict, like Wilson in WWI and FDR in WWII.